Key Moments:
- Gemini has filed with the CFTC to launch a derivatives exchange for prediction contracts, and the application remains under review
- Kalshi and Polymarket both reported over $1 billion in weekly trading volume between late October and early November
- Gemini’s stock has declined about 40% since its IPO, and its first earnings report is expected on November 10
Regulatory Path and Expansion Plans
Gemini Space Station, listed on the NASDAQ and led by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, is moving to establish itself within the growing field of prediction markets. The company has submitted an application to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) with the intent to operate a derivatives exchange that could offer contracts based on elections, sports, and economic outcomes, pending regulatory approval.
Gemini aims to introduce its new products rapidly after receiving approval. However, the CFTC has yet to approve the application, which has been under review for several months. The approval process could face additional setbacks due to delays tied to the recent federal government shutdown.
Gemini is making headlines as they move toward launching regulated prediction market contracts!
After filing with the CFTC in May, the Winklevoss-founded exchange is aiming to let users trade on real-world outcomes – everything from elections and sports to financial news and… pic.twitter.com/2JhNzMhmDX— 0xAlex (@AlexYakovlevvv) November 6, 2025
Competitive Landscape Intensifies
Several companies are actively competing in the prediction markets sector. Some, such as Robinhood, have expedited their entry by collaborating with platforms that already hold CFTC licenses. For example, Robinhood allows customers to trade event contracts through Kalshi, which is an approved platform.
If Gemini secures approval, it will contend with firms like Kalshi and Polymarket, both of which reported record-setting trading volumes between late October and early November. During this period, Kalshi reached $1.2 billion in weekly volume, overtaking its previous high of just over $1 billion. Polymarket also surpassed the billion-dollar weekly mark during the same timeframe.
| Company | Weekly Trading Volume (Late Oct – Early Nov) |
|---|---|
| Kalshi | $1.2 billion |
| Polymarket | Over $1 billion |
Industry Investment and New Entrants
Major financial industry participants are also entering the prediction markets arena. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which owns the New York Stock Exchange, invested $2 billion in Polymarket with a $9 billion valuation. Meanwhile, CME Group and Coinbase have disclosed plans to introduce event contracts, and firms including MetaMask, DraftKings, and Sam Altman’s World have added prediction market features to their platforms in recent months.
Financial Standing and Future Outlook
Prior to its public offering in September, Gemini announced its intention to launch contracts on political, sports, economic, and financial market events. The company completed its IPO with $433 million raised, establishing a valuation of $4.4 billion. The share price has since declined around 40%. According to IPO disclosures, Gemini remains unprofitable and holds a minor position in U.S. crypto trading volume. The release of its inaugural earnings report is expected on November 10.
Regulatory Challenges
Analysts note that expanding into prediction markets has the potential to diversify Gemini’s business beyond cryptocurrency. However, regulatory conditions present notable uncertainties. While the CFTC has permitted Kalshi to broaden its offerings, traditional state gaming regulators – who typically oversee sports wagering – have challenged the extent of federal jurisdiction in court.
If approved, Gemini’s new derivatives arm would launch into an increasingly crowded digital finance sector, where exchanges seek to leverage the growing popularity of event-linked trading products.
- Author
Daniel Williams
